Bangkok (AFP) - Thais voted Sunday in an election pitting the popular reformists who came first last time against the conservative who ended up as prime minister, with ex-leader Thaksin Shinawatra looming large from his prison cell.

The Southeast Asian nation’s next government will need to contend with anaemic economic growth – the tourism sector vital but arrivals yet to return to their pre-Covid highs.

Multibillion-dollar transnational cyberscam networks operate from several neighbouring countries, and a longstanding border dispute with Cambodia erupted into deadly fighting twice last year.

“We need a strong leader who can protect our sovereignty,” said Yuernyong Loonboot, 64, the first voter to cast his ballot at a polling station in Buriram, the hometown of incumbent prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul.

“Living here, the border conflict has made me anxious. War was never something we used to think about.”

No party is forecast to win an outright majority, and coalition negotiations are expected to follow the results, expected late Sunday.

The progressive People’s Party was the runaway leader in opinion polls ahead of the vote.

But while its previous incarnation, Move Forward, won the most seats at the last poll three years ago, its candidate was blocked from the premiership and the party was later dissolved.

Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said after casting his ballot in Bangkok that he expected to “get the mandate from the people”.

“We promise to the people that we’ll form the people’s government to bring policies that benefit all, not the few in the country,” he added.

But ahead of voting day, political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak cautioned: “There are forces beyond the political arena in Thailand that call the final shots.

“It’s not about the election, it’s about the dissolutions.”

Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party came second in 2023 and formed a coalition with the third-placed conservatives Bhumjaithai, only to have its prime minister removed by court order.

He was succeeded by Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was judicially ousted in turn before parliament anointed Bhumjaithai leader Anutin in September – the country’s third prime minister in two years.

Thailand’s political history is replete with military coups, bloody street protests and judicial bans on prime ministers and parties.

The last coup in 2014 was followed by five years of junta rule and a military-drafted constitution that gives significant power to institutions appointed by the senate, which is not directly elected.

“People who are elected have been able to be undermined by people who are not elected,” said political scientist Napon Jatusripitak.

“That’s not necessarily a good thing for a country where democratic experience has been turbulent.”

- Populist handouts -

Move Forward was dissolved after the constitutional court ruled its pledge to reform the strict royal insult law amounted to an attempt to overthrow the constitutional monarchy.

The issue has not featured in the People’s Party campaign this time.

Anutin’s Bhumjaithai is second in the polls and analysts anticipate the conservative leader, who championed the legalisation of cannabis, could retain the premiership by again allying with Pheu Thai, now ranked third.

Thailand’s most successful political party of modern times, Pheu Thai has fallen from grace after Paetongtarn was dismissed by the constitutional court over her handling of the Cambodia dispute, and with Thaksin jailed for corruption.

His nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat, seeking to become the family’s fifth prime minister, said Sunday that “Thailand must change”, but pollster NIDA puts the party on just 16 percent, a far cry from its heyday.

While Bhumjaithai touts its national defence credentials, especially after last year’s clashes with Cambodia, the People’s Party is advocating ending conscription and cutting the number of generals.

All three major parties offer various populist handouts and socioeconomic policies, including Pheu Thai’s pledge to award nine daily prizes of one million baht ($31,000) each to boost the economy.

A referendum ballot on Sunday also gives voters a chance to voice whether they want constitutional reform in principle, but with no specific measures on the table.